When Does Science Go Beyond Hypothesis Testing?

Professor Martin Manning at the Holt Planetarium, Chambers St, Napier

Thursday 12 February at 7:30 pm

martin-manningProf. Martin Manning represented New Zealand on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He spent five years in Colorado managing the recent IPCC assessment of the physical science of climate change and was a member of the IPCC that was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He is now responsible for establishing an interdisciplinary New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute hosted by Victoria University.

Prof. Manning delivered an excellent presentation questioning traditional science approaches based strongly on hypothesis testing. He noted that scientists working in the physical and natural sciences are often told that they should propose a hypothesis and test it thoroughly.

This relates to classic works by statistician Ronald Fisher in the first half of the twentieth century that moved away from subjective forms of inference and focussed on explicitly formulating and testing hypotheses.However, another leading statistician, George Box, showed that some forms of subjective judgement will always be involved. Then German climate scientist, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, noted that “hypotheses about global change are the less falsifiable the more they are relevant to humanity”.

An example: A new and very detailed model for the Antarctic ice sheets now explains why sea level was 20m higher in the past and implies that it could increase by as much as 2m in the next 100 years. But do we really want to test that model by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and what would it mean for the Hawke’s Bay coastline and flood plains? If not, at what point does, or did, further testing of climate models become unnecessary to scientifically justify radical changes in our use of fossil fuels?

Prof. Manning was in Hawke’s Bay to present at “Future Directions of Rationalism and Humanism“, a three day conference for New Zealand Rationalists, Humanists, Skeptics.

NZCCRI

Future Directions of Rationalism and Humanism

A Conference for New Zealand Rationalists, Humanists, Skeptics and you
February 13 to 15, 2015
Duart House, Havelock North, Hawke’s Bay

  • Future Issues for Young People in New Zealand – Russell Wills,
    New Zealand Children’s Commissioner
  • The Precariat – The New Dangerous Class
    Guy Standing, Professor University of London
  • What does a Rational Approach to Climate Change mean for New Zealand?
    Martin Manning, Professor Victoria University

The conference will include presentations from the three free-thought organizations – NZ Rationalists and Humanists, Humanist Society of NZ and NZ Skeptics. There will be opportunities for around-the-table discussions by attendees and Q and As.

Link to Conference Site here>

Download pdf here>

Download MS Word Registration Form here>

DuartHouse

Members’ Festive Catch-up

Members and friends joined the Branch Council at the Holt Planetarium on Monday 8 December for a small celebration at the start of the festive season. This was prior to the evening lecture by Hamish Campbell.

This was also an opportunity to recognise the support for lectures we receive from the Holt Planetarium, and the staff at the National Aquarium who between them host most of our events. Thanks especially, Gary and Carol.

HoltPlanetarium      National-Aquarium-Logo

Our Zealandian Dinosaur Fossils

How and where to find them

Dr Hamish Campbell, GNS Science.
Monday 8 December 

Hamish Campbell, here to support the fascinating Dinosaur Footprints exhibition at The National Aquarium of New Zealand, delivered a virtuoso performance on topics far wider than merely the dinosaur record. Anyone who has heard Dr Campbell speak on radio or TV will attest to the clarity with which he communicates to a lay audience.

By the end of its ninety minutes, his talk, and his answers to the many questions from the audience ranged across the origins of the land masses that make up modern New Zealand and neighbouring islands, the tectonic plates and faults that determine its seismicity, the geology evident at its surface (including fossil discoveries), through to evidence of climate change and its likely future consequences.

Preceded by festive drinks and nibbles, this lecture brought the year to a fitting and entertaining close.

 

Dinosaur Footprints

A story of discovery

GNS Science Geologist, Greg Browne

GNS Science Geologist, Greg Browne

Greg Browne at the National Aquarium, Wednesday 5 November

Dinosaur Footprints – a story of discovery is on display at the National Aquarium until 11 January 2015.

GNS Science Geologist Greg Browne talked of his fascinating discovery of the first dinosaur footprints to be found in New Zealand. Which way were the dinosaurs were heading and how were the footprints preserved?

National-Aquarium-Logo

 

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Our Futures: Te Pae Tāwhiti

7:30PM Wednesday 29th October at the Holt Planetarium, Chambers St, Napier

OurFuturesThe Royal Society of New Zealand undertook a major review of the rapidly changing New Zealand population, and the implications of this for the economy, social cohesion, education, and health. Its purpose was to promote informed discussion of the implications of the 2013 New Zealand Census for understanding the changing nature of New Zealand society.

Our Futures: Te Pae Tāwhiti brought together data and analysis from the 2013 census and other sources, together with input from a wide range of researchers, to provide evidence-based pointers to the future of New Zealand society. It covers seven key themes: diversity, population change, tangata whenua, migration, households and families, regional variation, and work.

More information here>

The presentation was delivered by Professor Paul Spoonley.

PaulSpoonleyDistinguished Professor Spoonley is one of New Zealand’s leading academics and a Fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand. He joined the Massey staff in 1979 and was, until becoming Pro Vice-Chancellor in October 2013, the College’s Research Director and Auckland Regional Director. He has led numerous externally funded research programmes, including the Ministry of Science and Innovation’s $3.2 million Integration of Immigrants  and the $800,000 Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi. He has written or edited 25 books and is a regular commentator in the news media.

In 2010, Professor Spoonley was a Fulbright Senior Scholar at the University of California Berkeley and in 2013, a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Max Planck Institute of Religious and Ethnic Diversity in Goettingen. He was awarded the Royal Society of New Zealand Science and Technology medal in 2009 in recognition of his academic scholarship, leadership and public contribution to cultural understanding  and in 2011, his contribution to Sociology was acknowledged with the Sociological Association of Aotearoa New Zealand’s scholarship for exceptional service to New Zealand sociology. In 2013, he was given the title of Distinguished Professor, Massey University’s highest academic title.

 

2014 Beatrice Hill Tinsley Lecture

Tamara Davis: The Dark Side

7.00 PM Tuesday 23 September, Hawke’s Bay Holt Planetarium, Chambers St, Napier

The Hawke’s Bay Astronomical Society invited our members to join their 2014 Beatrice Hill Tinsley Lecture by Dr Tamara Davis.

Dr Tamara Davis

Dr. Davis is the Future Fellow of the School of Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia.  She is a cosmologist who spends her time investigating why the expansion of the universe is accelerating.

Dr. Davis was part of the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey, which made one of the largest ever maps of the distribution of galaxies in the universe, and uses supernovae to measure the properties of “dark energy”. She’s an avid science communicator and has a knack for turning complex concepts into everyday language.

The Dark Side

Observations of the universe over the last few decades have thrown us some curve balls.  We thought we had the basic picture — the universe is expanding, and all the structure we now see formed thanks to gravity out of little over-dense clumps in the hot, dense, early universe.  Well that was all true, but we’ve realised that that’s not the end of the story.  There’s a dark side to the universe that we don’t usually see, and it seems that everything we thought we knew makes up only 5% of the universe.  Dark matter and dark energy make up the rest….
In this talk I’ll explain why we are so certain of such a seemingly ludicrous proposition, and what we can hope to learn by studying these wild and wonderful phenomena.

Entry is by gold coin donation and seating is on a first come, first served basis

Facing the future: towards a green economy for New Zealand

Thursday 18 September 7:30PM Venue: Holt Planetarium,  Chambers St, Napier

CGCarrington

Emeritus Professor Gerry Carrington presented the recent Royal Society of New Zealand paper on a Green Economy for New Zealand. The good numbers attending showed the interest in this topic and in our region.

Gerry is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Otago, a Fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand and a Fellow of the Institution of Professional Engineers of New Zealand. He is a trustee of the National Energy Research Institute and the Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust.

In 2009, Gerry was awarded the “Outstanding Contribution to Sustainable Energy Award” by the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, and was noted by the judging panel as being “a leader of change based on academic principles” and “an educator of future generations of energy specialists.”  He is also the founder of the National Energy Research Institute (NERI), an independent, research evidence-based organisation that strives to be a ‘thought-leader’ of the energy sector.

Facing the future: towards a green economy for New Zealand

FacingtheFuture2The United Nations Environment Programme proposes a Green Economy as an effective response to a number of linked global concerns: income disparity, population growth, green-house gas emissions, and atmospheric and freshwater pollution. Facing the future: towards a green economy for New Zealand suggests that NZ can respond to these issues and achieve economic, social and environmental benefits by becoming a green economy, which is:  low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive.

A key message of the talk is drawn from the Global Risks 2014 report: “collaborative multi-stakeholder action is required as businesses, governments, or civil society alone do not have the tools and the authority to tackle systemic risks”.

The Royal Society of New Zealand says environmental problems are beginning to threaten social and economic well-being and that New Zealand would benefit from a move to a green economy.

In Facing the future: towards a green economy for New Zealand, the Society highlights research on the resource and consumption challenges facing New Zealand and the rest of the world, and the opportunities for dealing with them. It concludes that New Zealand can have a number of economic, social and environmental gains by accelerating its move to a green economy.

Human consumption growth over the last century has had significant effects on the global environment, such as reduced water quality, loss of biodiversity and a changing climate. These environmental changes are not good for long-term sustainability and well-being. The panel agrees that New Zealand can avoid adverse consequences for the economy, society and the environment if it reconsiders its direction of development.

New Zealand has several targets for reducing national net greenhouse gas emissions, including a 50% reduction by 2050 compared with 1990. However, recent modelling by the Ministry for the Environment indicates that by 2040 New Zealand’s net GHG emissions are expected to be 51% higher than the 1990 baseline.

A green economy is defined by the United Nations Environment Programme as being resource efficient, low carbon and socially inclusive. The Society says New Zealand is well positioned to become a green economy with its many natural advantages, such as extensive renewable energy sources. We also have many opportunities to increase our resource efficiency, which means improved productivity. Many businesses and organisations are already aiming for sustainability. Communities are working together for change, and innovators and entrepreneurs are ready to grasp the opportunities of a greener economy.

The paper identifies a number of barriers that need to be overcome, such as the perception there are trade-offs between being economically competitive and being sustainable, and that a green economy might lead to a lower standard of living.  Raqher, there is growing recognition of alternative indicators better suited than GDP for capturing the quality, quantity and sustainability of economic activity.

The aim of the paper is to encourage the discussions that will help shape a sustainable future. Becoming a green economy will require action and collaboration across all sectors of society. It’s good that we are already seeing this happen.

The paper was authored by a Royal Society of New Zealand panel chaired by Emeritus Professor Gerry Carrington FRSNZ. The Panel members were: Professor Geoff Austin FRSNZ, Dr Sea Rotmann, Professor Ralph Sims CRSNZ, Dr Janet Stephenson, Professor John Boys FRSNZ, Professor Les Oxley FRSNZ, and Dame Anne Salmond CBE FRSNZ.

New Zealand’s renewable geothermal resources

Royal Society Hochstetter Lecture
Wednesday 27 August 7:30 pm. Holt Planetarium, Chambers St, Napier

ChrisBromleyChris Bromley is a senior geothermal researcher and geophysical consultant at GNS Science, with 35 years of international experience, including resource assessments, geophysical exploration, and environmental studies of geothermal fields and mineral deposits in 8 countries.

Chris is currently the Co-Editor-in-Chief of Geothermics, Chairman of the IEA Geothermal Implementing Agreement, a member of the IPGT Induced Seismicity Working Group, and heads international geothermal environmental-effects research.

New Zealand’s renewable geothermal resources

Renewable energy will be crucial for the long-term future of all mankind. In New Zealand, we are relatively fortunate, in that renewable geothermal energy is already a major contributor (18%) to base-load electricity supply and industrial direct heat demand. Decades of well-focussed applied research has given us a global technological advantage in developing and utilising all types of geothermal resources, through cost-effective and environmentally benign strategies.

Gazing into the crystal ball, what additional future use could we make of our geothermal resources? Should we attempt to develop say 3 GW(e) of surplus cheap geothermal power in the hopes of exporting it to Australia by cable or fully electrifying our transport sector, or  should we develop say 10 GW(th) of hot water resources to establish large district heating schemes and attract more energy intensive industry?

To address these questions we need to be confident that our geothermal resource use will be sustainable, and utilisation won’t cause unwanted adverse environmental effects, or detract from our significant geothermal tourism assets. This requires better calibrated simulation modelling of long-term reservoir behaviour, adaptive management to facilitate flexible injection and production strategies, and more-advanced monitoring of reservoir behaviour in order to inform the adaptive decision-making process.

Boreholes provide data for 3D models of reservoir properties, and a means of directly monitoring various parameters of interest (eg. pressure, temperature, fluid chemistry). Geophysics monitoring and exploration (eg. gravity, resistivity, micro-earthquake activity, seismic velocity tomography, and ground deformation) offer more indirect information on resources. Integrated interpretation with geochemistry and hydrothermal alteration processes is the key to better conceptual understanding, improved simulation models of reservoir behaviour, and more astute reservoir management.

Download a pdf of Abstracts here>

More about Chris Bromley

Chris Bromley was a lead author of the geothermal chapter of the IPCC renewable energy report (SRREN), a reviewer of EGS projects for the US-DOE, and keynote/invited speaker at 14 international meetings.

In New Zealand, he peer reviews operational management of several geothermal fields and provides technical advice to regulators. He has published 88 refereed papers, 103 others, and 184 consulting reports; he has presented at 73 conferences, and convened five international workshops on induced seismicity, sustainability, global geothermal potential, geothermal innovation and environmental mitigation.

For information about Ferdinand Hochstetter, see the Geoscience Society of New Zealand site.

Charles Fleming Lecture

The demise of New Zealand’s freshwaters: politics and science

7:30pm, Thursday, 17 July 2014, National Aquarium of NZ, Marine Parade, NAPIER

Mike-JoyThe Charles Fleming Lecturer for 2014 was Dr Mike Joy of Massey University, Palmerston North. Dr Joy was awarded the Charles Fleming Award for Environmental Achievement in 2013.

Dr Joy suggested New Zealand’s freshwaters – our lakes, rivers and groundwater outside of the conservation estate – are in a perilous state, and given the inertia from regulators their future looks bleak.

rsnz_logo_3This lecture was presented in association with The Royal Society of New Zealand as one of a series of ten “2014 Charles Fleming Award for Environmental Achievement” lecture presentations.